At least it no longer is. I remember reading in a novel once that the vast majority of the human race had never traveled more than 200 miles from their home. I have no idea if that was ever the truth, but it certainly is not today. I commend this site, called Global Issues, to your attention for the ensuing discussion. The demographic composition of some countries is changing--in some countries, quite dramatically.
In many developed countries today, citizens are likely to name immigration as one of the top concerns they have. Although it seems fairly obvious that immigration is a proxy for fears relating to crime, unemployment and large public expenditures, those concerns are neatly encapsulated in high profile news stories about immigrants. It also piggy-backs quite nicely on the atavistic 'fear of the other' that has characterized the folly of our race for so long.
It is claimed that there are 191 million immigrants today, or 3% of the world's population. I think it might be higher, but I also think it is unlikely to be above 4%. If this percentage was spread evenly across the map, I don't think it would be possible to keep the issue alive as a source of political and social discontent. Obviously, however, immigration is lumpy. But these bullet points from the weblog cited above are a bit telling:
- The last 50 years has seen an almost doubling of immigration;
- 115 million immigrants live in developed countries;
- 20% (approximately 38 million) live in the US alone, making up 13% of its population;
- 33% of all immigrants live in Europe;
- 75% live in just 28 countries
In talking about the next five years, there are two important points to remember about immigration: First, most immigrants don't pick up stakes because life is easy where they are. As someone who has lived the past decade in Italy and Great Britain, I can tell you immigration is tough, even for a white American. It is much tougher for a non-white person from a developing country. (Which is why more than a third of immigrants eventually, like me, return to their country of origin). Second, if you cannot feed yourself and your family, at some point failure to immigrate feels like slow suicide and criminally irresponsible behaviour. So people choose an economically viable destination and go there. People move heaven and earth to get to places like the U.S., UK and France because of economic opportunity--i.e., the chance to avoid starvation. It is rarely a political choice. It does have political effects, however, usually in the form of providing ammunition for race-baiting, fear-provoking idiots, mostly on the right.
The next five years are likely to provide more such ammunition for these idiots, as there are two rules concerning immigration. First, poverty drives immigration. Second, recessions and depressions hit the poor more than the rich, and poor countries more than rich countries. Immigration will tend to increase, and move towards countries that have been least affected by the coming Hard Times. Canada and Australia look like prime destinations. Canada, at least, seems prepared to welcome this. Canada is full of people with good sense.
5 year prediction: Immigration will increase from 3% to 5% of the world's population. It will still be lumpy.
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