The previous post argues that countries don't really have to play the hand they are dealt in terms of the workforce and social composition of their bodies politic, as they can shape the make-up of their citizenry through immigration policy.
There are other tools at their disposal. The most commonly used tool is incentives for having children, either positive (e.g., France) or negative (China). Both were successful, and both result in unintended consequences.
If a Pestle analyst wants to look at long-term GDP potential, the first place to look is at population trends, looking for bulges in the working age population (Turkey, Iran) which clearly indicate growth potential. Bulges in the over-40s (Europe) are harbingers of decline. Multiple bulges (U.S.) make you have to think. It is easy enough to find the 'average' age of a population, a bit harder to find out what it was for the past decade or so, and see the direction that the national economy wants to head in. Sites like the CIA World Factbook or Nationmaster are helfpul with this kind of thing.
Or does anybody else think it's a bit funny that our current economic situation blew up in the same year that the Baby Boomers started to reach retirement age and almost simultaneously made major decisions about investment/savings/spending priorities? Nah--just me?
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