Does Human Knowledge Double Every 5 Years?

There Were Hints And Allegations

Remember we are testing three hypotheses here:

1. The actual store of human knowledge (not, repeat not, data) has doubled in the past 5 years

2. Access to knowledge has grown so quickly that it fulfills the same function as a doubling of human knowledge

3. We are disproving previously held theories at such a rate that it frees up resources to concentrate on useful lines of enquiry resulting in an effective doubling of knowledge.

The easiest to find positive indications for is number 2. As an example, 5 years ago:

• Wikipedia had 80,000 articles and 125,000 hits per day in August 2002. On January 1, 2007, it had over 6 million articles (in 251 languages!) and in Dec. 06 it averaged more than 5 million daily unique visits. Okay, that's more than double... but this only works for hypothesis number 2, as we have no indication on how much of the knowledge placed on Wikipedia during that time period existed before 2002.

It Should Be Lumpy, Right?

We wouldn't expect a uniform doubling of human knowledge within a 5-year timeframe, right? Even if this is a law as inexorable as Moore's (and that doesn't seem as inexorable as it once was, or am I reading the Dell ads wrong?), one would reasonably expect that human knowledge would advance a little in some areas and a lot in others. You with me?

Given what the world's attention has been focused on since 2002, here are some of the areas where I think human knowledge should have increased fastest:

• Epidemiology, thanks to SARS and Avian flu
• Biofuels
• Vaccines
• Proteome
• Oil extraction from rock and shale
• Mars
• Genetically Modified Organisms
• Fishery management
• Global warming
• Solar activity
• The Long Tail
• Stem cell cultivation
• Infectious diseases

I will treat this as a proxy list of subject areas to explore. I'm going to be digging around to see if we've seen dramatic advances in any or all of these. I'll probably dedicate a few posts to each of them. Got any suggestions?