Let's try to look at real world effects of this dangerous illusion we are discovering.
The illusion is that a rapid growth in human knowledge (doubling every five years) is happening all around us, naturally and painlessly. As we hope to have shown on this weblog, human knowledge about a particular subject can increase that fast or faster, but it is always as a result of putting money, institutional resources, interested and bright people to do the research, together. It doesn't hurt to have an urgent public need (HIV) or potential private gain (nanotechnology) as a carrot.
But where these inputs are not provided, human knowledge about a subject grows at a much slower pace. Let me explain what I mean.
Click below for more...
The number of patents filed regarding prions doubles every 2.38 years. The number of patents filed regarding Alzheimer's disease doubles every 6.5 years. That four year difference may not seem very great to you at first glance--and you may think that the few dozen people who are afflicted each year with CJD, the human variation of mad cow disease, also deserve to be treated quickly and with cutting edge science. But there are possibly hundreds of millions who will be afflicted with Alzheimer's disease in the next 50 years, as there are predictions that a) half of all people over 85 will have Alzheimer's disease and b) the number of people reaching that age is going to skyrocket.
But even so, doubling the number of patents every 6.5 years will still mean a huge expansion of human knowledge between now and 50 years out. Right?
The problem is that we don't know how many times we will have to double our knowledge of Alzheimer's disease before we can treat it, vaccinate against it, devise behavioural and cognition therapies that mitigate its effects, and perhaps, some day, cure it.
So here's a hypothetical game. Let's imagine that there are today, June 3, 2007, 100 patents for Alzheimer's disease (In fact, there are 67,900) and 100 patents for prions (In fact, there are 6,771) . And let's pretend that we need 1 million patents to find a cure for Alzheimer's and another 1 million on prions to cure both mad cow disease and CJD.
So, beef-eaters rejoice--we will have the hypothetical 1 million patents needed to cure mad cow disease in December, 2039, using the observed historical CAGR of 33.76% for patents regarding prions. However, don't sell your shares in chronic care facilities that treat Alzheimer's patients.
On the same day in 2039 that we celebrate the cure for mad cow disease with 1 million patents, we will only have moved from our original 100 patents for Alzheimer's to a total of... 3,040, using the observed CAGR of 11.26%. I will be celebrating my 85th birthday, if I'm still around (lovely coincidence, that), and I am really hoping today that we can do better at shielding me from a 50% chance of having the disease.
So when will we get our millionth patent (and miracle cure) for Alzheimer's? In 86.5 years, or in December of 2093. This means our children will have to stump up for a generation of baby boomers in fairly good physical condition sitting out a vacant endgame in some care center while we nod off with Alzheimers.
So the real world question becomes, Who decided to prioritize research into prions instead of Alzheimers?
Imagine the real world consequences if the growth rates for Alzheimer's Disease and prions were reversed. Finding a cure for Alzheimer's disease half a century early, perhaps.
There are some caveats, of course. There are actually more patents and journal publications about Alzheimer's than about prions. (But there should be--people have been studying Alzheimer's disease for a century.) But obviously, Alzheimer's is not being ignored. It just isn't being given the priority I think it deserves.
Also, research on prions may indeed help the fight against Alzheimer's. In fact, it almost certainly will. (But the vice-versa is also true.)
Finally, we don't know if we have to get that many patents to find a cure for either mad cow and CJD or Alzheimer's. We could (and I hope we do) find it tomorrow. But that level of increase may not be enough. We just don't know. Hence, we should make the statistical preparations for a long fight by prioritizing knowledge sectors by a) public need (in this case, number of potentially affected people) and b) any visibility we have on chances for success.
I don't want to be the one making those decisions. I'm not even sure I want to vote for that person (or committee). But I don't want the decisions happening by default, or not even being taken.
I will recommend not to hold back until you earn big sum of money to order all you need! You can take the personal loans or just car loan and feel fine
Posted by: Sweet23ILA | 09/07/2011 at 10:50 AM