It used to be that, when an academic found something new in her or his research, she or he would write a paper and submit it to an academic journal. And it used to be that when corporate research and development departments (or some geezer in a garage) made a discovery, they would rush to apply for a patent.
Now, academics are quite likely to file a patent, or the institution they work for might--or both, in combination. So it would not be surprising to see a growth in patent applications.
The United States Patent and Trademark Office has been issuing patents since 1790. As of March, 2006, the USPTO had issued more than 7 million patents.
And wonder of wonders, miracle of miracles, they have a statistics page that shows patent activity by year since 1790. Wow.
We'll have to juggle a bit here. The applications for patent stops at 2005 (390,733), but the patent grants time series goes to 2006 (173,771). It's kind of important which year to choose, because in 2006 patent grants returned to growth after 2 years of decline. Not coincidentally, the Patent Office hired 1,100 new patent examiners in 2006 to deal with a backlog of applications.
Going to 2006, patent grants have shown a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 5.21%, which would cause a doubling of patent grants every 13.65 years. Patent applications started being counted in 1840, and as I said, we don't have 2006 figures. For the 165 years available, patent applications have shown a CAGR of 3.88%, which would double applications every 18.21 years.
Well, perhaps the rate of growth has been higher recently. That's what the five-year comparison is supposed to show. We will focus on patent grants only, and statistics are in the extended post below.
There are only two five year periods where the number of patents granted is double that of the preceding five year period. After the Civil War (1867-1871), when patents climbed from 26,613 to 61,646, and between 1807 and 1811, when patents rocketed from 366 to 898.
There are many five year periods where the numbers of patents declined, the most recent being the period between 1977 and 1981.
The figures below look very much like the real world. As the population increased and the environment became more conducive to technological innovation, human knowledge grew--but not exponentially and not, indeed, in a straight line. Recent performance is good--but no better in percentage terms than many periods preceding it. The number of US patents granted has not doubled in the past 15 years, let alone the past 5. We'll take a look at other countries' patent statistics later--maybe they are making up for the U.S. shortfall.
Click if you want to see the numbers.
Period Patents Granted
2002-2006 818,222
1997-2001 735,517
1992-1996 508,526
1987-1991 443,289
1982-1986 324,469
1977-1981 307,815
1972-1976 367,457
1967-1971 335,060
1962-1966 280,007
1957-1961 239,020
1952-1956 195,140
1947-1951 166,596
1942-1946 145,055
1937-1941 202,163
1932-1936 227,052
1927-1931 226,293
1922-1926 210,712
1917-1921 191,021
1912-1916 197,019
1907-1911 173,143
1902-1906 149,358
1897-1901 115,938
1892-1896 107,905
1887-1891 110,891
1882-1886 103,467
1877-1881 65,872
1872-1876 53,509
1867-1871 61,646
1862-1866 26,613
1857-1861 17,721
1852-1856 7,702
1847-1851 3,708
1842-1846 2,501
1837-1841 2,303
1832-1836 3,144
1827-1831 2,263
1822-1826 1,228
1817-1821 876
1812-1816 1,008
1807-1811 898
1802-1806 366
1797-1801 208
1792-1796 109
1790-1792 47
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