Pestle summary Russia

For each of the 8 countries we're covering, we'll start off with topline statistics as sort of a summary, or more of a launching pad for further exploration. We'll start with Russia, partly because this may be the last 5-year period that it is included in the top 10 international powers. Out of all the 8 countries I will look at individually, Russia faces the most daunting challenges. They have faced worse--I would hate to be a centenarian from Russia--but I doubt if they have the resources or leadership to avoid a sharp general decline over the next five years.

Most numbers here are from Wikipedia or the CIA World Factbook, with a little Nationmaster thrown in.

GDP: 8th in the world 2009, 1.75 trillion

Population: 9th in the world, 142 million

Military expenditures: 5th in the world, $50 billion

The Russian Federation just finished a spectacular decade, averaging 7% annual growth since 1998. But at the end of that spectacular decade, their average income is $640 per head, their life expectancy is 66, and they only average 14 years of schooling. They really needed to make better use of the Golden Decade.

Russia is extremely dependent on exporting natural resources, especially natural gas and oil. The price of those are falling. So is their population--it's declined 5% since 1993 and although it is slowing it shows no sign of reversing. Alcoholism, drug addiction and AIDS are taking a heavy toll on Russia. Inflation is high, at 12%, and unemployment looks to increase from its current 6%. They've already blown through a good chunk of the petro-dollars they had put aside, and the current economic crisis is not going to be kind to Russia.

Seems pretty clear that Vladimir Putin is very much running the show, with President Medvedev along for the ride. This suits the Russians just fine--but it shouldn't. A decade of rising oil prices made Putin look a lot better than he really is.

Their levers of power are the energy they supply to much of the EU and their stockpile of nuclear weapons (They are 5th in military spending, with $50bn annually, less than 10% of the U.S.). On the perceived corruption index, they rank #129, between Niger and Sierra Leone. On business efficiency, they are ranked 45th out of a total of 51 countries, and sit between Italy and Romania.

Their environment's a bit of a mess, with a lot of leftover waste from the Cold War, the oligarchic exploitation of resources, and some stuff left over from WW2. As Nationmaster lists them, "air pollution from heavy industry, emissions of coal-fired electric plants, and transportation in major cities; industrial, municipal, and agricultural pollution of inland waterways and seacoasts; deforestation; soil erosion; soil contamination from improper application of agricultural chemicals; scattered areas of sometimes intense radioactive contamination; groundwater contamination from toxic waste; urban solid waste management; abandoned stocks of obsolete pesticides". They can survive this because the country's so big.

As for technology, they can't run their oil companies without Western help--but they're trying. They export nuclear technology and have good competence there. But Russia only has one university in the top 100, so long term prospects for entreprenurial excellence are dim.

I hate to be so bleak--maybe when we look in greater depth we'll see reason for hope for this country--they certainly have shown themselves to be resilient, if nothing else. 

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