The celebrated weblog Watts Up With That (winner of this year's Science Blog award--I think it came in second place last year, too) today published a simple chart, which I show below. It compares computer model predictions with several sets of observations of the Earth's temperatures. The figures all use 1979 as a base date and show how the computer models predict more warming than we actually see, with divergence beginning in about 1999.
This does not mean that all computer models are wrong. It does not mean that global warming does not exist. It definitely does not mean that humans are not putting out greenhouse gases.
But it definitely means we need to get more and better data and think about what we're doing. And above all else, it means that we do have time to get this more and better data. If the sky is falling, it isn't starting today. We have time to do the science right.
Update: As brought to my attention in the comments, Watts Up With That actually got the chart from an equally interesting skeptical site, Lucia's The Blackboard. (Thanks Barry W.)
Oh, dear - now you've done it! To get any lib cred now, you'll have to make and serve your lovely wife a dinner made of soy and wash the dishes in rain water - no phosphates in the dishwashing soap!
Posted by: Walter Cronanty | 04/16/2009 at 05:34 PM
Check the reference in the lower right corner of the chart. This is actually from Lucia's blog: The Blackboard.
Posted by: BarryW | 04/16/2009 at 05:51 PM
Thanks, Barry--noted and updated.
Hi Walter--I think you can hear the sound of my name being snipped from Christmas lists...
Posted by: Tom Fuller | 04/16/2009 at 06:16 PM