According to the Economist, the 8 countries I have selected for further analysis will contribute a negative $648 billion to the world economy this year. The only two countries on my list that they think will grow in 2009 are India (at 5%) and China (6%). The Economist forecasts that all but two (the UK, at -1.1%) and France (0.0%) will return to positive growth the next year. It's the second worksheet in this file, titled The 8. Download Top 10 in 3 categories
I don't really agree with the Economist's numbers for individual countries, but it could be that the net difference is small--as I roughly agree with the numbers for USA and Japan, the big difference is that I think China will go in the tank, but that's for another post.
But if 8 countries wipe more than 1% of world GDP off the board this year, the other 200 countries are going to have to make up for a lot of ground if world GDP is to grow at all in 2009. And I don't see where that growth is going to come from.
So it looks as if, for the first time in a very long time, world GDP may decrease this year. That's big news.
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