Well, this article regarding the 2001 recession reaffirms the common sense idea that immigration doesn't stop in an economic downturn. As I remarked on another subject, hard times are harder for the poor, and the payoff for immigration is high. This report (PDF) from the Migration Policy institute strongly suggests that, while immigration from Central and South America may be slowing (by half--from 1 million per year to 500K), there is no evidence of a massive return to country of origin. The paper strongly suggests that legislation drives immigration flows more than economics, and that anti-immigration legislation may strengthen during recession. In other words, it's what recession does to the host country and their attitudes towards immigration that has the greatest effect.
(hat tip for references above to Two Weeks Notice)
As someone who believes (based on the numbers, which are certainly disputed) that immigration is a net benefit to the host country, I certainly hope that the US does not impose draconian restrictions on immigration--especially not in response to the current economic downturn. But there will certainly be policy tension in the Obama administration, as organised labour did a lot to elect him, and they are rarely advocates of looser immigration policy. On the other side of the battle line will be the large numbers of Hispanics who turned out for Obama and see the issue as considerably more nuanced.
My five-year prediction is that immigration policy in the US will get more entangled and the public opinion of immigration considerably more confused. I think that one of the great idiots on the public scene today is Lou Dobbs, and I think he will experience greater success and achieve greater fame stoking the fires of xenophobia. Worse luck for us all.
More later.
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