Well, for those readers who have been slightly numbed by the technology focus of recent posts, this may be a welcome change. It's time to look at American politics over the next 5 years.
The key political change has been Democratic control of the levers set in motion by the 2010 Census. The passing of state legislatures into Democratic hands, the ability of Congress to move towards inference instead of enumeration in some instances will tend to make Democratic districts stronger and some fence-sitting districts lean leftwards. Spoils of victory and all that. The effect will be that Democrats will be able to continue to control much of the machinery of government despite what I predict will be a 10% loss of 'countable' popularity--countable meaning various outputs including, but not limited to, voting.
The Democrats would be crazy not to factor in this 10% loss in popularity--there is no magic wand to fix the economic mess America's in, and they are the party in power during a downward slope in the economy. But the Democrats are not crazy--the Democratic leadership is experienced, savvy and saw Republicans play the same game twice during their careers. They will maintain working control with the grudging assent of a thin majority.
At the top, President Obama seems sure to be re-elected, mostly due to the lack of a qualified candidate on the Republican side. There does not seem to be one Republican or even independent candidate who could move the polls significantly, and the most likely nominee, Romney, will not exactly unite the Grand Old Party.
There are 16 senators over the age of 74, so nature will change the composition of the Senate more than will the next two elections. Those 16 are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, so no predictions here. The oldest members of the Supreme Court are liberals or moderates and will probably allow President Obama to name their replacements during his term. But they will be hoping its his second term.
The 2010 elections are a threat to Democrats, as the only event that they can use as leverage is the state of the economy. I do believe the economy will be recovering by election day, but perhaps not enough to help Democratic incumbents--especially if conservatives find effective talking points, and voices to utter them. Democrats will be happy if Rush Limbaugh and Anne Coulter continue to be the mouthpieces for conservative doctrine--but they are unlikely to be so lucky. Fortunately for Democrats, 8 Republicans have already decided to retire by 2010, compared to only 4 Democrats (so far--both numbers are likely to grow).
The external factors most likely to influence the political situation in America are narco-war in Mexico, the disintegration of Pakistan and/or Afghanistan, and the follow-on effects of severe problems in China. I would suspect the third as being the most likely cause of political problems in the U.S.
Comments