In 1809 few would have predicted American dominance at any point in that century. The British and the French were battling for supremacy, and the Portugese and the Spanish were, too. It would be only five years before the Brits took time out from their continental struggles to burn the White House, something conveniently papered over by our celebration of the Battle of New Orleans, fought after we surrendered. America had a population of 7.2 million, a GDP of $700 million ($97 per capita--wow--equivalent to $1,303 in year 2000 dollars). We still had a lot of basic history and development in front of us.
The Founding Fathers had already predicted our future, and had pledged their lives, fortunes and sacred honor to achieve it. Not really sure how many people just nodded pleasantly at the notion. 55 years later the American era began.
All of which is to say that picking the owner of this century isn't as obvious as it may seem.
But, if healthcare really does grow to 13% of U.S. GDP by 2050, than the best technology providers will get a good chunk of that. That seems like a big win for American companies to me, and should lead to Americans providing solutions for the rest of the world--exporting added information value, which is what we do pretty well.
Don't know if you're reading it here first, but nanotechnology will change the world in this century more than electricity did in the last. Here again, America is front-running, leading in patent applications and with more than 1500 commercial products already using nanotech. Another big win for us--the Japanese in second and Chinese in third, may have difficulties exploiting this sector.
Genetics will mostly contribute to the healthcare sector cited above, and American companies (that aren't acquired by foreign pharma) will grow rapidly.
Robotics is the other sector that I predict will contribute mightily to human progress this century, and the country that leads here (as with the other sectors) will have a good chance to own this century. The Japanese currently claim the lead--but so do the South Koreans. And in the last linked article, it makes it clear that "The United States, which has the world's best fundamental technology, is currently the leader in developing special purpose robots, and the country is strengthening R&D for developing applied robotics technologies. The United States is consolidating its lead-in defense-robots and concentrating on developing technologies for robots used in space exploration, medical, rehabilitation and other specialized services. The United States is also using its advanced technology in fundamental areas such as artificial intelligence, mobility, as well as sensor and sensing technologies in developing software required to fulfill the conditions of robots with strong capacity for intelligence."
I'll talk about Green Technology in another post. These three are enough to convince me that this century has every chance of being American as the last one.
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