This post is the 'background' post, designed to set the stage for a 5-year forecast of technology trends worldwide. There may be other 'background' posts--remember I'm trying to show my work.
New scientific or technological progress is often measured in discrete packages known as patent applications or academic publications. These are easy to count and give an idea of progress. It isn't perfect, as backlogs in patent offices, copycat patenting and publishing, etc., can throw the stats off a bit, but as these practices aren't new, one hopes that the overall measure of progress is valid.
Growth in the number of patents has, over the past 50 years, been dramatic--but largely driven by the adoption of patent regimes by new countries, such as China. But let's turn the lecture over to the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) for a moment:
"Worldwide patent activity increased by 4.9% between 2005 and 2006, mostly due to increased filings by applicants from China, the Republic of Korea and the United States of America
The total number of applications filed across the world in 2006 is estimated to be 1.76 million, representing a 4.9% increase from the previous year. Between 2005 and 2006, the number of filings worldwide by applicants from China, the Republic of Korea and the United States of America increased by 32.1%, 6.6% and 6.7% respectively
Patent applicants tend to come from a relatively small number of countries of origin. For example, applicants from Japan, the United States of America, the Republic of Korea, Germany and China accounted for 76% of total patent filings in 2006. Chinese residents increased their share of total worldwide patent filings from 1.8% to 7.3% between 2000 and 2006, mostly due to increases in domestic patent filings.
Although the number of patent applications filed across the world has increased at a steady pace, the rate of increase is less than the rate of increase observed for other economic indicators such as GDP and trade."
Hence my previous post saying that a 1% increase in CAGR in patents would have a dramatic effect on a number of important living conditions.
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