It seems to me that the green machine will fade over the next five years. I don't want (on this weblog, at least) to get overly involved in the debate over global warming--there are plenty of forums discussing that, such as Real Climate and Gristmill taking the pro position, and Climate Audit and Watts Up With That taking the con.
As has been noted in other contexts, it matters more who's left than who's right. There's no money left, there will be a diminishing of political will, there will be a grand turning to other things. The green agenda will have to sink or swim on the short term viability and easily seen payback of individual projects.
It won't help that there is likely to be a volcanic eruption, probably in the Pacific Rim, that will put enough sulphates into the air to cool things off--nor that other cycles that affect the climate are turning down the thermostat, at least temporarily. These things, which operate independently from any anthropogenic contributions to greenhouse gases, will take the heat off of any urgency to deal with climate change, and there will be other pressing demands on the public purse.
A major recession is not the time to try and convince developing economies to go green. The recent fall in the market price of carbon emission permits in Europe is another sign. President Obama's failure to talk much about the energy proposals in his stimulus bill is a bit telling.
Five year prediction: Whatever happened to Al Gore and climate change?
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