The post below from yesterday, which details the stately, rather than exponential, increase in granted patents in the U.S., has really got me thinking, and I think we'd better report on the state of play here.
Let's detail those areas where we have seen adequate growth to double human knowledge every 5 years:
Update: We have since found other areas where the CAGR is sufficient to double human knowledge every five years:
Update 2: A modest review revealed errors in my calculations regarding oncology. Its position has changed (and not for the better).
Prions, where academic journal publications have increased at a CAGR of 25.57%, and patents have increased by 33.76%
Software, where academic journal publications have increased at a CAGR of 22.83% and patents have increased by 33.53%
Post-graduate enrollment in China, which has increased at a CAGR of 22.38% (although see below for more discouraging information about the growth of tertiary education worldwide)
(All percentages are CAGR (compound annual growth rate.)
1. Nanotechnology, with a blistering growth in publications of 97.16% per year. Patents, 76.15%.
2. Global Warming publications, with a of 16.85%
3. Total Chinese patent applications, at 25% per annum
4. Chinese computing patents, 58.29%
5. Chinese telecommunications patents, 30.26%
7. Epidemiology patents, 22.76%
So far, that's it.
Now let's look at where we did not find anything like doubling every five years (remembering that we need a CAGR of 14.87% to double in five years time):
Update: We have now found other areas where human knowledge does not appear to be growing at a rate that will double in five years time:
Worldwide university enrollment, which has a CAGR of 4.85%
Alzheimer's disease, where academic publications have a CAGR of 9.65% and patents a CAGR of 11.26%
Programming, where academic publications have a CAGR of 12.55% and patents a CAGR of 12.83%
Chinese university enrollment, with a CAGR of 9.76%
1. U.S. patents granted, 5.21%
2. Epidemiology publications, 8.85%
3. Shale oil extraction, publications 5.59%, patents, 2.61%
4. Publications on Mars, 5.78% (see also here and here)
5. U.S. Book publishing, 5.14%
6. Indian university enrolment since 1947, 5.51%
7. Climate Models, 12.66% (Very close to 5-year doubling rate of 14.87%)
8. Improvements in Climate Models, 13.76% (Also very close)
9. Growth in publication of scientific and technical papers, 1995-1999
OECD 0.1%
U.S., -1.8%
Canada, -2.2%
UK, -0.1%
Netherlands, -0.5%
10. Publications in astrophysics, 4% (since 1970)
11. Growth in percentage of cancer patients surviving 5 years after diagnosis, 0.7% (1960-2005)
12. Drop in percentage of soldiers dying from wounds received in battle, 1.54% (1941-2006)
13. Projected growth in number of scientists (U.S.), next ten years, 7.18%
14. Patent filings in India, last five years, 8.45%
15. Increase in patent filings, World International Patent Office, 1 year, 6.4%
6. Oncology pubications, 9.23% (revised)
Considering I cherry picked areas that I thought would be most likely to show robust growth, this is scary.
Comments